Order decline, return surge, seller: peak season is over


Author:Crystal crystal
Source: ennews

As Christmas approaches, multiple Amazon sellers have experienced a cliff like decline in orders, indicating that this year's peak season has completely passed. Some sellers have already startedLie flat. And sellers of Christmas products need to hurry up and clear their inventory, as Amazon has announced that disposal costs will double after January 18th.


Sellers who do not need to clear inventory have taken advantage of this opportunity to make new development plans. Through events such as Amazon account suspension and video verification this year, many sellers have achieved compliance operations and steady development as planned for next year.


Multiple sellers' orders have significantly declined and dropped to freezing point


In the past two days, several Amazon sellers have noticed a severe decline in orders, which have already reached a freezing point. A seller said that today's order is chilling; Another seller bluntly stated that Christmas is when our hearts break.


This year's peak season seems to have ended earlier than usual! An industry veteran seller claims that sales in previous years have been able to sustainOn the 23rd, this year began to show significant weakness on the 21st and 22nd, with sales plummeting all the way. More sellers have provided feedback on the order situation as follows:


Today's orders have decreased by 10% compared to yesterday;

——Half cold;

——Sales have started to decline;

——Plummeting sales all the way;

——There will be a flash sale tomorrow, I want to cancel it;

——No, it's cool;

——Christmas is approaching, and orders are also entering winter;

——True deviation of single quantity;

——The freezing point has arrived, and the vacation has begun


According to multiple feedback, sales have declined in the past two days, with Christmas products performing the most significantly, and other categories of products have also been affected. On the contrary, the reason for the decline in orders is the norm during this time period.


For Americans, Christmas is no less than the Chinese New Year. Family and friends who give gifts to each other usually prepare their gifts early, so there will naturally be no related needs as the holiday approaches.


Moreover, many Americans start their holidays one week before Christmas, with some people taking their holidays fromFrom December 22nd to January 5th, a total of 15 days. There are other different times, too. A friend said that colleagues in the United States have been on vacation since the 20th. When relaxing on vacation, the proportion of online shopping orders is greatly reduced.


Foreigners are on holiday for Christmas, and the off-season has arrived. This year's peak season is so short! "Exclaimed a seller.


The decline in orders is closely related to American consumption habits, as well as Amazon delivery of goods.


Yesterday, a seller discovered that the labels of some Christmas related products on Amazon have changed and can only be delivered after Christmas.This is equivalent to directly sentencing products around Christmas to death. In the future, such products can only be cleared of inventory or sold again next year.


E-commerce platforms have seen a decline in orders and a surge in returns. Sellers: The peak season is over


Industry logistics providers have issued notifications due toFrom December 24th to December 26th, due to the Christmas holiday in Europe and America, the delivery service in the local area will be extended. Hong Kong also has Christmas holidays along with Europe and America, so some transit goods passing through Hong Kong may be delayed.


Specific factors such as poor logistics timeliness and delivery after Christmas have greatly affected the conversion rate of sellers' products, leading to varying degrees of decline in orders from multiple sellers. However, what is even more terrifying than orders is the upcoming wave of returns.


A seasoned seller in the industry predicts that Amazon's Christmas sales are coming to an end, and foreigners will have a lot of returns after the holiday. Returning goods after Christmas is a routine operation in previous years, and some people who do not speak of martial arts will return them after use.


However, multiple sellers believe that,Returns after Christmas this year will be more aggressive than in previous years.This year, many European and American people have a poor economic situation, and there will be more people who want to engage in prostitution for free than in previous years. There will definitely be more returns in the future.


In addition, the prediction that more sellers will return goods this year is based on the current situation. This month, some sellers have already felt the helplessness of returning goods, with one seller selling20 received 20 returns.


Based on the current feedback, this yearThe returns in December are higher than in previous years during the same period. So, sellers infer that there may be a higher return rate after Christmas.


At the end of the peak season, many sellers are facing the problem of clearing their remaining inventory.


Yesterday, a seller roast:A few Christmas season shipments from Canada in September were signed for and put on the shelves today! "There were many similar situations, as the seller missed the sales node for holiday products due to logistics reasons and faced significant storage and disposal costs. On the same day, the seller sadly discovered that starting from January next year, the cost of abandoning the US station would double.


Starting from January 18th, Amazon Logistics saw a significant increase in removal and disposal costs


The Amazon logistics page displays,In 2022, the cost of Amazon Logistics removing and discarding orders will change, and the cost of removing and discarding orders on US sites will significantly increase, with some product costs more than doubling. The change will take effect from January 18th.


Shipping information orders decline, returns soar, seller: peak season is over

(Source: Seller)Amazon Knife)


Change information display, standard size delivery weight inFor items weighing 0 to 0.5 pounds, the cost of removing or disposing of each item has increased from $0.32 to $0.52; For those weighing 0.5 to 1.0 pounds (excluding 0.5 pounds), the cost has increased from $0.35 to $0.75; For those weighing 1.0 to 2.0 pounds (excluding 1.0 pounds), the cost has increased from $0.48 to $1.14; For those weighing over 2 pounds, the cost has increased from $0.67+$0.35/pound (for those weighing over 2 pounds) to $1.51+$0.63/pound.


The cost of disposing of large items and items that require special treatment has increased even more, and has all doubled. Clothing, shoes, watches, jewelry, and dangerous goods may all be classified asSpecial handling of goods is required.


For large items and items that require special handling, the delivery weight should beFor items weighing 0 to 1.0 pounds, the removal or disposal fee per item has increased from $0.60 to $1.50; For those weighing 1.0 to 2.0 pounds (excluding 1.0 pounds), the cost has increased from $0.72 to $1.96; For those weighing 2.0 to 4.0 pounds (excluding 2.0 pounds), the cost has increased from $1.26 to $2.89; For those weighing 4.0 to 10.0 pounds (excluding 4.0 pounds), the cost has increased from $2.32 to $5.05; For those weighing over 10.0 pounds, the cost has increased from $3.50+$0.35/pound (for those weighing over 10 pounds) to $7.25+$0.63/pound.


The seller sighed that the cost has been increasing year by year, and now there is another significant expense. For sellers who had previously prepared a large amount of goods ahead of schedule and still have a large amount of inventory accumulation, it can be said to add insult to injury. The peak season has passed, and it is not easy to clear redundant inventory at a low price. If you want to avoid this expense, you can only prepare to lose the goods in advance and destroy them before the price increases.


On one hand, the cost of disposal has increased, while on the other hand, Amazon has relaxed its storage restrictions. Is this for the seller to control the stocking rhythm?


Previously, Amazon notified us via email that,The inventory performance index (IPI) assessment for the first quarter of 2022 will be postponed until mid December.Yesterday, Amazon USA released a notice stating that in recent weeks it has raised restocking restrictions for many sellers, andStarting from January 1, 2022, the inventory performance indicator score threshold for Amazon logistics warehousing restrictions will be lowered to 400. After adjusting this indicator, the proportion of sellers with limited storage capacity will be less than 10%.


Many sellers are overjoyed:


——I'm so happy! The IPI threshold has dropped! The European IPI, which just dropped to 498 this week, almost didn't cry, and now it's back to life. I'm moved

——Finally, there's no need to exceed the limit

——It's Chinese New Year, and this unrestricted arrival is too timely


Soon, a seller noticed that on the backend warehouse page, the warehouse restrictions for the next time period were displayed asUnlimited.


Shipping information orders decline, returns soar, seller: peak season is over


Some sellers believe that the peak season has passed, and Amazon's lifting of storage restrictions is not very effective. However, it is currently a critical stage for spring stocking, and lifting restrictions is still beneficial for most sellers. Although storage restrictions are relaxed, restocking restrictions still exist, which is the real bottleneck for the vast majority of sellers.What's the use of lowering the IPI threshold and not increasing inventory? Most sellers have an IPI of no less than 450, and their storage capacity is still tightly limited, "said one seller.


This Monday, Amazon adjusted its storage capacity as usual, and feedback from sellers was inconsistent. The standard for storage capacity adjustment is still being questioned, with some sellers disbelieving the increase in their own storage capacity, while others openly stating:Is Meiya still reducing storage capacity at this point, indicating that I am selling too poorly, or is Amazon's warehouse backlog too high during this peak season


A seller feels conflicted. He no longer wants to ship and wants to keep money for the Chinese New Year, but on Monday Amazon expanded its capacity again400. Some sellers are urging it to expand its pattern, after all, in the first year of the epidemic, having goods is the king, and daily price increases also keep orders. However, the current global epidemic seems to be worsening. But after mid January 2022, the cost of removal and order disposal has skyrocketed, and sellers still need to be cautious in stocking up.


Storage capacity restrictions have also caused some sellers to miss out on opportunities to promote new products. A seller said:Last month, a friend recommended a product to me and asked me to do it. I said I wouldn't waste any storage capacity. Today, he told me that he made a profit of 3W a day on this product, earning 150 yuan each. It's great, one product has changed another person


In 2021, sellers experienced more than just storage capacity limitations. In this extraordinary year, Amazon is no longer able to make money with its eyes closed. People have witnessed a series of major events such as Jeff's resignation, the lockdown wave, system crashes, and tornadoes, and have also witnessed the platform's turning and transformation as a result.


2021 Amazon Chronicles Inventory


1. Amazon US website proposes insurance requirements


On February 16th, Amazon America sent an email notification to multiple sellers, requesting them to provide proof of liability insurance for products sold through Amazon stores. Article 9 of the sales agreement stipulates that sellers are required to purchase and maintain commercial general insurance, additional liability insurance, or excess liability insurance for at least $1 million within 30 days after the total sales amount reaches $10000 for three consecutive months


Failure to purchase insurance on time may result in inability to withdraw or even be banned from sale. For sales before the end of the monthA store with a standard of 10000 US dollars, if Amazon requires insurance proof, it also needs to be provided. Multiple sellers have already made purchases one after another.


2. Amazon Cancels Early Reviewer Program


Amazon informed the seller that sinceStarting from March 5, 2021, new registrations of the Early Reviewer Program will no longer be allowed, and the service will cease to be provided to sellers currently registered with the program on April 20, 2021, affecting four sites: the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and India.


For sellers who follow the rules and do not brush orders, this plan is a safe and efficient way to obtain comments, which is also very beneficial for potential new products. Afterwards, the seller lost another compliance evaluation channel.


3. Cancel ASIN level restocking restrictions and change to overall store restrictions


On April 22nd, the US website announced that FBA products are no longer subject to ASIN level quantity restrictions, and instead limit the overall inventory quantity of the store based on different storage types and past sales. From then on, sellers face dual restrictions: inventory capacity limitations caused by substandard IPI scores, and total restocking volume limitations in the store. The weekly replenishment update has also become a key concern for sellers.


4. The wave of account closure has arrived


At the end of April, the main brands under Patoson were banned, marking the beginning of a six-month wave of banned brands. Afterwards, top sellers such as Tongtuo, Zebao, and Youkeshu were hit one after another, triggering an earthquake in the industry. The suspected trigger for the incident was the "small card" and other criticism activities were exposed.


The incident has attracted widespread attention, and the Ministry of Commerce has also responded to this matter.On September 17th, Dai Feifei, Amazon's global vice president and CEO of Amazon's Asia Pacific region, revealed that according to Amazon's statistics, a total of about 600 Chinese brands and 3000 accounts, including some large sellers, were closed during the lockdown. After this incident, a large number of Amazon sellers began to operate in a fully compliant manner.


5. Bezos, the brother-in-law, steps down


Local time in the United StatesStarting from July 5th, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos officially stepped down as Amazon's CEO, and the position was succeeded by Andy Jesse. After leaving office, Bezos continued to work in the company and served as the Chief Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors.


6. AWS service interruption, Amazon front and rear desk and logistics system malfunction


In several systems this yearAfter the bug, Amazon AWS service experienced a significant interruption on December 8th Eastern Time. A large number of consumers are unable to access Amazon. com, and some features on the seller's backend page are missing or unable to update data, affecting sales. The FBA logistics system is in disorder, and warehouse employees and drivers are unable to identify the goods. The local warehouse has been temporarily closed for a day, and the collection of goods has been suspended. Popular warehouses such as ONT8 have long queues for delivery starting from the front row.


7. The collapse of Amazon warehouse caused by tornado


local timeOn December 10th, the central region of the United States was hit by a storm, with 19 tornadoes sweeping across five major states. A tornado caused a massive collapse of a warehouse in Amazon, resulting in six deaths. The seller who placed the goods in the warehouse suffered serious losses, and some sellers claimed to have received compensation emails from Amazon Logistics. For sellers who need to clear their inventory, receiving compensation is not a bad thing.


8. Amazon launches a pilot program to shorten payment collection time to 3 days


Amazon has announced a trial plan to shorten the time for some sellers to receive payment3-day email notification. The email stated that starting from December 16, 2021, all confirmed orders from the seller will be retained for three days after the actual shipping date. For example, if the seller ships on January 1st and the actual delivery date is January 5th, the sales revenue will be paid from January 9th.


Seller's plan for next year: compliant operation and steady development


After a series of changes this year, some sellers believe thatAfter 2021, Amazon is the real Amazon, with no brushing orders, various black technologies, all compliant operations, and everything returning to zero.


Especially with Amazon's heavy crackdown on comment violations, multiple seller accounts have been banned, and some top sellers have been particularly affected. After being banned, these stores have not recovered as quickly as before, and many top seller accounts are still suspended.


When seeing a continuous increase in bloody number blocking cases, sellers in the industry have started to be cautious, abandoning illegal behaviors such as brushing orders, and carrying out white hat operations normally. How are the sellers of those white hat operations doing now?


A seller introduced their White Hat operations due to5. In June, we went through a platform sweep, so we registered our new stores with real corporate information and passed video audits. Everything was ready and we started compliant operations. After the product was launched, the orders were placed the next day. After about half a month of "naked running", our daily sales exceeded expectations by 15 orders, and we continued to reach the top 50 of New Releases.


A month later, several reviews came one after another, but due to product category issues, it was determined by Amazon to be a pesticide and removed from the shelves. After we rescued the link, sales began to plummet. In order to stabilize sales in the futureQA has increased advertising investment outside the site, and sales have slowly rebounded. After several flash sales, the daily sales of the product have exceeded 40 orders. During this period, we conducted continuous backend reviews and vines, and both reviews and sales increased. Unfortunately, the good times did not last long, and warning letters arrived as scheduled, followed by a decline in traffic and sales.


The seller claimed that they hadQA and off site, they are not pure white hat gameplay. Next, Amazon's trend is to require sellers to fully comply and operate with pure white hat.


Cross border overseas orders decline, returns soar, sellers: peak season is over


Another seller directly established the Amazon White Hat Operations team and has achieved some results. He said, 'Wethis yearThe newly added Amazon White Hat operations group from 0 to 1 in May achieved sales of $600000 in December.


This newly added operation team is an elite team, currently onlyTwo operations, using pure white hat gameplay, not playing black technology, not sending tests, and not playing outside the site. All traffic comes from Amazon, fully complying with the platform's rules, and the store has extremely high security. Moreover, due to the lack of similar products in the market, this white hat operation group has a relative advantage in terms of products. Not only is the sales volume relatively considerable, but the gross profit margin is also very high.


During the operation process, the ranking increase mainly relies on Amazon advertising. CurrentlyAcos has shown a significant increase, but sales have doubled, so we are willing to spend advertising money to burn it.Next, we will focus on expanding in the field of pure white hats.


In this regard, peers believe that the white hat approach may be suitable for any category, any product, and gradually accumulate traffic, customers, and comments. It is more appropriate to rely on the advantages of the product and compete fairly on a starting line. Playing with black technology and other means, even if Amazon doesn't kill you, you will still be killed domestically. Please refer to the recent so-calledOne or two examples of the monopoly of "e-commerce sister" in blocking traffic across the entire network can be explored.


At present, many sellers are already trying to conduct compliance operations, using pure white hat tactics to obtain orders. Some sellers have already achieved success, and on the white hat road, some deviant sellers may struggle to escape Amazon's review, thereby affecting their hard-earned ranking and sales.


When orders have started to decline recently and the peak season is coming to an end, many sellers are starting toIn the 2022 plan, they incorporated compliant operations and steady development into the plan.


A veteran seller in the industry has made plans for next year,In 2022, with stability as the main focus, some of my thoughts are:


1Deeply cultivate existing product lines and improve the competitiveness of one's own products.

2. Develop on multiple platforms and strive for progress while maintaining stability.

3. Reduce the number of elite soldiers and generals, no longer allowing them to grow recklessly, and reduce unnecessary expenses.

4. Financial and tax compliance is the key.


This idea has been recognized by some peers, and in the following year, everyone will operate in compliance and steadily develop.


At present, the Amazon platform has passed the period of barbaric development and fast money making. If sellers want to operate for a long time, they may have to rely on white hat operations and cooperative operations to develop. During this period, sellers may go relatively slowly, but seeking speed is not the main trend, and seeking stability has become the consensus of most industry insiders.

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