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The RMB exchange rate has rebounded greatly!
Affected by the slowdown in housing prices in the United States in August and the deterioration of consumer confidence index in October, the market further strengthened expectations for a possible slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index continued to plummet. On October 26th, it directly fell below the 110 level.
With the continuous decline of the US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate suddenly staged a sharp rise on October 26th.
On the 26th, the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate increased by 1369 basis points compared to the previous trading day. Affected by this, some import enterprises no longer urgently purchase foreign exchange to avoid risks.
On October 26th, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced the need to maintain the healthy development of the stock market, bond market, and real estate market, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
With the significant rebound of the RMB exchange rate, the expectation of unilateral decline has suddenly cooled.
Industry insiders analyze that even if the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hike in November puts pressure on the RMB exchange rate again, relevant departments in China still have sufficient tools to stabilize the exchange rate, including increasing the scale of central bank note issuance in the Hong Kong market, tightening offshore RMB liquidity, lowering the macro prudential adjustment coefficient for corporate overseas loans, restarting the countercyclical factor, and lowering the foreign exchange reserve ratio.
The central bank has never stated which point the exchange rate should hold, therefore, it is still the trend for the RMB exchange rate to continue to fluctuate widely in both directions in the future.
When should foreign traders settle their foreign exchange? Stamp link: 7.3! The best exchange rate since 2008! Are there any foreign traders waiting for 7.5 to settle their foreign exchange?
policy
Electronic cigarettes will be subject to consumption tax, effective from November
On October 25th, the official website of the Ministry of Finance announced the collection of consumption tax on electronic cigarettes, which will be implemented from November 1st.
The announcement states that electronic cigarettes will be taxed based on a fixed price rate method. The tax rate for the production (import) process is 36%, and the tax rate for the wholesale process is 11%. And add e-cigarettes to the list of non duty-free imported goods in the border trade and levy taxes according to regulations.
Taxpayers exporting e-cigarettes shall apply the export tax refund (exemption) policy. The implementation of policies is beneficial for both cigarettes and e-cigarettes.
The Electronic Cigarette Professional Committee has issued a special statement, stating that the national policy of encouraging the export of electronic cigarettes remains unchanged.
It is understood that over 95% of the global production and products of e-cigarettes come from China, 70% of China comes from Shenzhen, and over 95% of Shenzhen comes from Bao'an. In 2021, the output value of electronic cigarettes in Bao'an District reached 31.1 billion yuan, a double increase from 2020, and there were 41 enterprises above designated size.
With the landing of these "boots", e-cigarette export enterprises can confidently explore overseas markets.
data
September export data released, better than expected
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on October 24th, in US dollars, China's total import and export value in September was 560.77 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, exports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of 84.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 24.5%.
Specifically, in terms of exports, in September, exports were valued at $322.76 billion in US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and an expected 4%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous value of 7.1%. Although the growth rate continued to decline, it was better than market expectations.
In September, ASEAN ranked first among China's export economies, with an export value of 52.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 16.19%; Next is the United States, with an export value of 50.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 15.73%; The third is the European Union, with an export value of 47 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.55%; The fourth is Japan, with an export value of 15.2 billion US dollars, accounting for 4.72%; The fifth is South Korea, with an export value of 13.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 4.2%.
Among the main export commodities, mechanical and electrical products have the highest export value, with $190.67 billion, accounting for 59.1%, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its components are 19.75 billion US dollars, mobile phones are 17.21 billion US dollars, centralized circuits are 14.21 billion US dollars, household appliances are 7.29 billion US dollars, automotive parts are 6.86 billion US dollars, and automobiles (including chassis) are 6.34 billion US dollars.
Industry insiders have analyzed that exports continued to slow down in September, mainly influenced by base effects, slowing overseas demand, and declining high price factors.
What do you think of the export market in the fourth quarter of this year? Welcome to leave a message to share.
Sea freight
COSCO container ship has anchored, delayed shipping schedule, and has docked at multiple domestic ports
Recently, a sudden accident occurred on the sea route near Qingdao - the "TIAN CHANG HE" Tianchanghe ship owned by COSCO Shipping Container Transport Co., Ltd. anchored 26 nautical miles east of Chaolian Island in Qingdao due to a failure of the main engine tail shaft.
After the accident, in order to ensure the safety of ships and port navigation, and reduce the economic losses of cargo owners and shipping companies, the pilot station organized towing to enter the port in the early morning of the 21st, and finally successfully docked at Qingdao Qianwan Port.
The ship was originally scheduled to depart on October 22nd, but according to ship positioning data, as of 15:00 local time on October 25th, the ship is still in Qingdao Port, and the original scheduled shipping schedule has been delayed.
The "Tianchanghe" ship is 278 meters long and has a maximum draft of 11.4 meters. It contains 1359 containers, including 2 dangerous goods containers (solid sodium hydroxide, UN1823/grade 8) and 55 cold containers.
It is understood that the "Tianchanghe" ship belongs to the COSCO PA1 route and was on the 078S voyage at the time of the incident. The ship had previously docked at domestic ports such as Dalian and Tianjin, and will then proceed to ports such as Colombo.
At present, the original scheduled shipping schedule of the ship has been delayed. Recently, foreign trade export enterprises that have loaded goods on the ship intend to communicate with the shipping company in a timely manner to understand the latest status of the ship and goods, as well as subsequent shipping schedules and cargo arrangements.
Tunisia
Tunisia announces a pre inspection system for imported products
The Tunisian Ministry of Trade and Export Development, the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy, and the Ministry of Health in Africa have recently issued statements officially announcing their decision to adopt a pre inspection system for imported products, while also requiring products to be directly imported from factories produced in the exporting country.
Other regulations also include the requirement to provide invoices for applying for import related products to the competent authorities, including the Ministry of Trade and Export Development, the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy, and the National Food Safety Administration.
The importer must submit import information to the relevant authorities, including invoices provided by the export factory, official proof of the factory's legal personality issued by the exporting country, and proof of authorization for its business activities, as well as proof that the manufacturer has adopted a quality management system.
In addition, it also includes a declaration of the imported product category, the trademark of the product, and the trademark authorized by the owner for production. Samples of approved imported products, certificates of transportation (OTC) issued by the government of the exporting country, documents and reports proving that the quality of imported products meets the usage standards.
The following situations are not subject to regulations: imports from national institutions, public institutions, and local authorities; Import raw materials and semi-finished products for the industrial sector and related services, as well as the handicraft sector; Imported raw materials, semi-finished products, and spare parts; Imported equipment for renewable energy production projects; Imports without payment or currency transfer; Benefiting from duty-free imports, such as embassies and similar institutions.
For importers, it is a challenge.
logistics
UPS announces an increase in 2023 announced prices, effective December 27th
The global express delivery giant UPS recently announced a 6.9% increase in the freight rate (GRI) announced in 2023. This matches the increase announced by its competitor FedEx last month.
It is understood that the UPS price increase will take effect on December 27th, one week ahead of the FedEx price increase.
UPS stated that the increase in shipping costs applies to its US air, land, and international services.
Industry insiders expect that the GRI of the two express delivery companies will increase by at least 6% in 2023 to offset the impact of rising costs. Previously, some speculated that UPS may have a slightly lower GRI adjustment compared to FedEx to seize market share. But in the end, UPS chose a rate increase that matched FedEx.
The changes in 2023 also include UPS increasing the late fee from 6% to 8%. It will also remove the term "peak" when referring to delivery surcharges. UPS stated that starting from December 27th, these fees will be referred to as "demand surcharges".
The price of samples sent by foreign traders will increase in the future.
Türkiye
Türkiye Makes the Third Final Anti dumping Sunset Review on Chinese Zippers
On October 21, 2022, the Ministry of Trade of Türkiye issued Announcement No. 2022/29, on the zippers originating in China (Turkish: "Di ş Leri adi metalerden olanlar "," kayarak i ş The third anti-dumping sunset review final ruling was made, and it was decided to continue to impose an anti-dumping duty of $3/kg on the products involved in the case in China. The measures will take effect from the date of the announcement and have a validity period of 5 years.
The products involved include base metal zippers and other zippers, involving products under Türkiye tax numbers 9607.11 and 9607.19.
On June 7, 2004, Türkiye launched an anti-dumping investigation against zippers originating in China.
On March 12, 2005, Türkiye made a final affirmative determination on the case, and began to impose anti-dumping duties of 3 dollars/kg on the products involved (see Türkiye Announcement 2005/7), which is valid for five years.
On October 30, 2010, Türkiye made the first positive final judgment on the sunset review of the case, maintaining the anti-dumping duty of USD 3/kg for the products involved, with a validity period of 5 years (see Türkiye Announcement 2010/29).
On November 2, 2016, Türkiye made a second positive final judgment on the sunset review of the case, extending the validity of anti-dumping duties on the products involved for five years for the second time (see Türkiye Announcement 2016/43).
On October 30, 2021, the Ministry of Trade of Türkiye issued Announcement No. 2021/50, launching the third sunset review investigation on the case.
It has been extended for five years and five years, and Türkiye has won the battle.
Hungary
The Hungarian government announces the implementation of new economic measures
In response to the risks of high interest rates, high energy costs, and economic recession, the Hungarian government announced several economic measures on October 22, 2022, such as freezing loan rates for small and medium-sized enterprises, expanding commercial credit plans, and launching the "Save Factories" plan, in order to minimize economic losses in Hungary.
This move aims to ensure that the company can continue to repay its loans and avoid bankruptcy. The Hungarian government has stated that without such measures, there may be large-scale layoffs.
Key economic measures:
Freeze loan interest rates for small and medium-sized enterprises: The Hungarian government has announced an expansion of the freeze on loan interest rates to cover loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, with an expected application to nearly 60000 small and medium-sized enterprises, with a total loan amount of approximately 2 trillion forints.
Extension of Enterprise Loan Plan: The Szechenyi Card loan plan provided to enterprises will extend its implementation period, with the current 3.5% interest rate rising to 5% from January 1, next year.
The "Save the Factory" plan: Starting from November 2 of this year, the government will initially allocate 150 billion forint subsidies to subsidize investment projects by large companies to improve energy efficiency, such as installing solar panels or other ways to improve energy efficiency, thereby reducing energy costs. The maximum subsidy amount for companies in the capital region is 30% of the investment project, while for companies in other regions, it is 45%, with a maximum subsidy amount of 6 billion HUF per case.
Friends who specialize in new energy products can greet Hungarian customers.
risk
Global inflation index ranking released
Experts from the Global Health and Business Research Institute at Johns Hopkins University in the United States released the 2022 Global Inflation Index report, with data as of July.
The top ten countries with the most serious inflation problems are Zimbabwe (393%), Cuba (178%), Ghana (134%) and Türkiye (118%), Sri Lanka (116%), Venezuela (115%), Lebanon (113%), Laos (83%), Sierra Leone (71%) and Argentina (67%).
It is reported that the statistical standards for measuring inflation this time are inconsistent with those of traditional statistical institutions, which measure the price of the US dollar based on a free exchange rate. Countries like Argentina, which implement foreign exchange controls, use official US dollars to measure purchasing power.
As of the end of July, inflation indices in various countries are still rising, with Argentina reaching 7.4% in July, 7% in August, and 6.2% in September. The cumulative inflation index in September reached 83%.
Inflation and currency depreciation are common concepts that remind foreign trade partners to consider payment risks first when encountering orders from these countries.